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Divorce rates are down, marriage rates are up, contrary to popular belief

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Photo: The Institute of Family Studies
Photo: The Institute of Family Studies

In a study conducted by American Family Survey in 2019, researchers found that 88% of men and women in the United States think the divorce rate is increasing. However, The Institute of Family Studies in Virginia recently released an article that reports the rate of divorce is actually at a low, and family stability is up.

“Marriage isn’t declining anymore. We’ve seen the marriage rate in the past 15 years level off. We see the divorce rate down, we see more kids growing up in married parent families. This is all great news. And so, I think that should be part of our cultural understanding of the state of marriage today,” said Grant Bailey, a research fellow at The Institute of Family Studies and one of the authors of the article, “Is Marriage Back? Divorce is Down, Family Stability is Up.

Bailey is looking to set the record straight and change the narrative that’s been so dominant in society for so long.

“I’d have friends say, ‘Hey, how’s your research going?’ I’d talk about, ‘Oh yeah, so divorce rates are declining’—which has been true since the 80s. But I’d often get responses of people who are like, ‘What? Really? That’s such great news!’” Bailey said.

Bailey says those who get married now at 21 have a better chance of making it than those who got married at 21, 20 or even 30 years ago.

“I will say that the great, great news, is what I alluded to earlier, which is that the marital stability has really been increasing since 2012. And that’s more of a new finding. But even then, the divorce rate has been declining since 1980. And it’s shocking that nearly nine-in-ten Americans think that. That the divorce rate is actually increasing,” Bailey said.

A few identifiers that marital stability is increasing, are the trend of nonmarital childbearing, the low in the rate of divorce over the last 50 years and the trend reversal of children living with married parents.

In 2009, nonmarital childbearing peaked at 41%, before falling to 40% a couple of years later, landing where it now stands. According to the article, this matters because children born out of wedlock are much more likely to see their parents split up than children born to married parents.

Bailey says that popular belief tells us 50% of marriages are likely to end in divorce, however, the real numbers show something different.

“And so back then, back in the 80s, 50% of marriages were going to end in divorce. What we sort of suspect now is that number has dropped to 40%,” Bailey said.

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Photo: The Institute of Family Studies
Photo: The Institute of Family Studies

The third identifier is the reversal in the trend for children under 18 living with married parents. In 2012 the number of children raised in a married-parent family hit a floor of 64%. However, since then, it’s increased to 66%.

These new trends correlate to the theory that marital stability is increasing in recent years.

“We see that people who are married have greater marital stability, and so greater—over the long run—happiness. We also see better outcomes for children,” Bailey said.

Bailey notes that marital stability can be important for the act of raising children.

“We see children who grow up in married and intact homes have better grades, lower rates of depression [and] lower contacts from their school for poor behavioral performance,” Bailey said. “Children in married-parent homes do better on all of those counts than those who merely live with their cohabiting parents, even if they’re their biological parents.”

Bailey says the most exciting find that came up in their research related to the recent percentage of black children growing up in a home with married parents.

“So, in 1970, 59% of black children were growing up with married parents, and that fell by 2012, to 33%. So, a very dramatic decline. Over the past 12 years, we’ve seen a six percentage point increase in the share of black children growing up in married parent families, so from 33% to 39%,” Bailey said.

Bailey expressed hope for the future of the institution of marriage.

“We’re hoping that as the divorce rate continues to trend down, that we get under 40% of first marriages ending in divorce. But the good news is, it’s not just a coin toss,” Bailey said.

For more information, you can find the article on the Institute’s website.